Tag Archives: calculation

Why People Fail to Make Accurate Predictions About Probability

dice

When we solve problems and make decisions and judgments, we very often use mental shortcuts (so-called heuristics). We use these heuristics if we neither have resources nor time to compare all available information before making a choice. In other words, heuristics ease the cognitive load of making a decision. Continue reading

The Certainty Effect: Why We Fail at Calculating Probabilities

Continue reading