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	<title>calculation &#8211; Reflectd &#8211; bringing psychology studies to life</title>
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		<title>Why We Always Lose in Gambling Over Time: We Fail to Make Accurate Predictions About Probability</title>
		<link>https://reflectd.co/2013/09/11/why-people-fail-to-make-accurate-predictions-about-probability/</link>
					<comments>https://reflectd.co/2013/09/11/why-people-fail-to-make-accurate-predictions-about-probability/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Simon Moesgaard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Sep 2013 08:03:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Cognitive Bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cognitive Psychology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Learning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[calculation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gambling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mental shortcut]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[odds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[probability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[representative heuristic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the gambler&#039;s fallacy]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[When we solve problems and make decisions and judgments, we very often use mental shortcuts (so-called heuristics). We use these heuristics if we neither have resources nor time to compare all available information before making a choice. In other words, heuristics ease the cognitive load of making a decision. In general, heuristics can be helpful [&#8230;]]]></description>
		
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		<title>The Certainty Effect: Why We Fail at Calculating Probabilities</title>
		<link>https://reflectd.co/2013/08/10/the-certainty-effect-we-overweight-outcomes-that-are-considered-certain-relative-to-outcomes-that-are-merely-possible/</link>
					<comments>https://reflectd.co/2013/08/10/the-certainty-effect-we-overweight-outcomes-that-are-considered-certain-relative-to-outcomes-that-are-merely-possible/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Simon Moesgaard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Aug 2013 09:53:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Cognitive Bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[calculation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cognitive bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cognitive error]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[empirical]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[experiment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[probability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[&#8220;Not to be absolutely certain is, I think, one of the essential things in rationality” &#8211; B. Russell What is the certainty effect? According to Li &#38; Chapman (2009), the certainty effect happens when people overweight outcomes that are considered certain relative to outcomes that are merely possible. The effect was introduced by Kahneman and Tversky [&#8230;]]]></description>
		
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